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Higher refinery costs could increase summer gasoline prices says US EIA

Average monthly prices for regular-grade retail gasoline in the U.S. could increase by more than $0.10/gal if refinery output is lower than expected, according to an analysis published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In the EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which serves as the Base case for analysis, the EIA forecast summer regular retail gasoline prices will average about $3.70/gal.

The new analysis, a Perspectives supplement to the May STEO, presents a High Refining Cost scenario, which examines:

  • The potential effects of lower gasoline yields, based on limited production of high-octane gasoline blend components 
  • The impact of widening differences between retail prices on the East and West Coasts and the Gulf Coast
  • The influence of higher regional retail gasoline prices, increased gasoline imports, and slightly less gasoline consumption

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