Russia revises down oil and gas production and exports forecasts for 2026–2029
- Downgrade reflects sanctions, drone attacks, weaker economy
- Negative scenario assumes steeper fall in oil output and exports
Russia has revised down numerous oil and gas forecasts for the next three years, including on crude and gas output as well as exports, the economy ministry said on Monday in its base case scenario.
Media has reported that Russia has faced challenges to its oil and gas industry, including western sanctions and Ukrainian drone attacks on its energy infrastructure which led to oil output decline in early April.
Oil and gas tax revenue account for around a quarter of Russia's federal budget proceeds, while Russia taxes oil output, not its exports.
The downgrade of the oil and gas outlook is reflected in the broader economy downward revision amid high military spendings, interest rates and Western sanctions over Ukraine.
In the base case scenario, oil and gas condensate production has been revised down for this year to 511 metric MMtpy, or 10.22 MMbpd, from an early forecast of 525.2 metric MMt and broadly on par with 511.4 MMt Russia produced in 2025. Outlook for subsequent years has also been scaled down.
Crude exports under the base-case scenario were scaled down by 4.5 MMt this year to 237.2 MMt from the previous forecast and by 16.5 MMt to 227.4 MMt next year.
NEGATIVE SCENARIO. In the negative scenario, which assumes lower commodity prices, oil output is seen falling to 497.2 MMt this year and is expected at 502.2 MMt next year.
Oil exports under this scenario are expected to decline over two years — to 223.6 MMt in 2026 and 213.8 MMt in 2027 — and are not projected to exceed the 2025 level even by 2029.
OIL PRICE SEEN LOW. In its forecast, the economy ministry has left the price of country's flagship Urals oil grade unchanged for this year, at $59 per barrel, despite a surge of it past $100 in the wake of closure in March of Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for 20% of global oil flows, due to the war in Iran.
Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Vedomosti newspaper in an interview published on Tuesday that global oil prices could decline in the wake of a weak economic growth in Asia.
"This implies that in the medium term, global demand could decline and prices may fall even below pre-conflict levels," Novak told the newspaper.
Following are base-case scenarios outlined by Russia's economy ministry for 2026–2029. Previous forecasts, made in September 2025, are in brackets:
|
2025 actual |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|
|
Brent oil price, $/barrel, average per year |
69.0 |
81.0 (70.0) |
65.0 (70.0) |
63.0(72.0) |
61.0 (73.8) |
|
Russian Urals oil price, $/barrel |
55.6 |
59.0 (59.0) |
50.0 (61.0) |
50.0(65.0) |
50.0 (67.8) |
|
oil and gas condensate output, mln tons |
511.4 |
511.0(525.2) |
516.0(532.6) |
525.0(540.0) |
525.0 (540.0) |
|
oil exports, mln tons |
230.8 |
237.2(241.7) |
227.4(243.9) |
236.3(251.2) |
236.3 (251.2) |
|
oil products exports, mln tons |
125.8 |
122.6(132.0) |
134.0(134.0) |
134.0(134.0) |
130.0 (130.0) |
|
natural gas price outside ex-Soviet Union, $/per 1,000 cubic metres |
324.0 |
336.3(308.4) |
275.7(292.8) |
267.8(289.3) |
268.7 (290.2) |
|
natural gas output, billion cubic metres |
662.7 |
688.4(690.4) |
711.3(712.8) |
731.9(739.9) |
750.4 (755.9) |
|
pipeline gas exports, billion cubic metres |
115.5 |
115.5(114.0) |
125.5(121.0) |
125.0(127.0) |
127.5 (127.0) |
|
LNG exports, mln tons |
30.3 |
40.3 (40.3) |
46.9 (46.9) |
58.4(58.4) |
66.2 (66.2) |
|
oil and gas exports, bln $ |
202.5 |
220.1 (215.2) |
193.4 (227.5) |
200.6 (251.2) |
203.0 (263.2) |
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