November 2002

Management Guidelines

Why is it so difficult to combine experience and theory in business decisions?

Investigate the root cause for conflict between expectations and the modeling system

Hartmann, J.C.M., Consultant

The oil industry is complex. Business models in the hydrocarbon processing arena, therefore, should not be categorized as "right" or "wrong." It is more appropriate to classify them on a "relevancy scale." Models should be sufficiently simple to be understood by users and sufficiently complex to include the decisive elements for the specific decisions at hand. The art of modeling is thus the art of knowing what can be ignored. That requires vast experience. And what is the use of models for someone who is already experienced? Challenge both model, experience. By using a model the right way, both experience and the mode

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