Forecast: Asia to dominate global CDU capacity additions through 2030
The global conventional refining industry is anticipated to expand considerably from 2025 to 2030, fueled by increasing energy demands from emerging markets and strategic investments in refining infrastructure. Consequently, the capacity additions of crude distillation units (CDUs) are accelerating globally, with Asia projected to lead these expansions across all regions through 2030, says GlobalData.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Conventional Refineries Industry to 2030 – Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook with Details of All Operating and Upcoming Refineries,” reveals that Asia is likely to add CDU capacity additions of 8.874 MMbpd between 2025 and 2030, followed by the Middle East and Africa with 6.213 MMbpd and 5.307 MMbpd, respectively.
Bhargavi Gandham, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The increasing energy demand, driven by expanding populations and economies, especially in China, India, Pakistan, and Indonesia is anticipated to propel capacity additions in CDU across Asia.”
India is expected to witness the highest CDU capacity additions in Asia, with 2.356 MMbpd capacity expected to be added by 2030. The CDU expansion project at the Vadinar refinery with a capacity of 515,000 bpd is the largest upcoming CDU refinery in the country in terms of capacity additions during 2025-30. It is slated to begin its operations in 2026. Other notable refineries, including Haldia III, Panipat and Paradip, are expected to contribute significant capacity additions during the outlook period.
China is identified as the second highest contributor to the CDU capacity additions in Asia, approximately accounting for a quarter of the region’s capacity additions by 2030. Among the upcoming CDU projects in China, Caofeidian V leads with 401,000 bpd of CDU capacity to be added in 2029.
Pakistan ranks third, contributing about 15% of the region’s total CDU capacity additions during the outlook period. The Larkana refinery leads in terms of upcoming CDU capacity with 400,000 bpd.
Gandham concludes: “Several Asian nations are actively investing in the modernization and expansion of their refining infrastructure, aimed at strengthening energy security and improving refining efficiency. These initiatives are expected to drive CDU capacity additions in the region.”
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