Colombia's diesel price hike leads to trucker strike and unrest
Colombia's decision to reverse a diesel price hike that sparked a strike by truckers could adversely affect public finances, as majority state-owned energy company Ecopetrol said it would begin shutting off some operations amid the unrest.
Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla said the government reversed its decision to increase the price of diesel by 1,904 pesos ($0.45 cents) per gallon, starting this month. The government is now proposing increases of 200 pesos per month from September to December, while strike leaders are pushing for increases of 100 pesos per month.
As protests - characterized by roadblocks - continued into their fourth day, police in capital Bogota cleared some roads using tear gas and tow trucks.
Diesel prices had been held at an average 9,065 pesos ($2.16) per gallon for almost five years, amid government subsidies that Bonilla said cost some 12 trillion pesos ($2.87 billion) per year.
"This is probably a sign that the government will end up conceding relatively quickly and the strike may not last for a very long time, but there will be additional negative consequences for the fiscal outlook," said Andres Pardo, head of Latam macro strategy at XP Investments.
Ecopetrol said it had begun shutting production at a number of its fields due to the strike, as well as bombings on oil pipelines. A shutdown in operations at Cano Sur will lead to its oil output falling by some 45,000 barrels per day, and it will also shut off operations at four other fields.
"With the increase in blockades, the recent terrorist attacks against the Cano Limon-Covenas and Bicentenario pipelines ... and the takeover of the Gibraltar gas plant conditions for the production chain become more complex," the company said in a statement, adding fuel supply could be disrupted.
Authorities and analysts warned the strike threatens shortages of food and other goods, causing an increase in prices, which would lead to higher-than-expected inflation.
Food inflation could accelerate around 0.6%, said Camilo Pérez, director of economic studies at bank Banco de Bogota, and could lead to a nine-basis point increase to total inflation this month.
Analysts said a rise in inflation could push the central bank to avoid speeding up the pace of further cuts to its benchmark interest rate.
The Central Bank's board of directors has cut its interest rate by 50 basis points in its last four meetings to a current level of 10.75%.
"We would be inclined to think that the central bank might not accelerate the pace of easing, although we still see the board applying another 50 basis point rate cut," Pardo said.
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