U.S. SAF production forecast to eclipse 50,000 bpd by 2026
Production capacity of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the U.S. could increase from around 2,000 bpd to nearly 30,000 bpd in 2024 if all announced capacity additions come online. Developers expect Phillip 66’s Rodeo Renewed project to produce up to about 10,000 bpd of SAF beginning this summer, and they expect Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur SAF project to produce about 15,000 bpd of SAF by the end of the year.
SAF is an alternative to petroleum jet fuel. It’s produced from agricultural and waste feedstocks and is consumed in blends with petroleum jet fuel. Investments in SAF have increased due to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), federal tax credits, and state programs and tax credits incentivizing use of the fuel. The White House also set a goal of meeting 100% of U.S. aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2050. About 1.6 MMbpd of petroleum jet fuel was consumed in the U.S. in 2023, and we project U.S. jet fuel demand in 2050 to exceed 2 MMbpd in our 2023 Annual Energy Outlook.
We capture SAF production data in the “other biofuels” category of our Petroleum Supply Monthly. In addition to SAF, our Other Biofuels category includes renewable heating oil, renewable naphtha, renewable propane, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization.
Historically, production of Other Biofuels in the United States has been minimal. However, because renewable naphtha and renewable propane are by-products of a growing renewable diesel industry, production of Other Biofuels has been growing as well. U.S. production of Other Biofuels increased from just 2,000 b/d in 2020 to 19,000 b/d in 2023.
SAF production has historically comprised a small portion of Other Biofuels production because of restricted production capacity. At the beginning of 2024, U.S. SAF production capacity was only around 2,000 b/d, with only two plants capable of producing SAF: World Energy’s plant in Paramount, California, and Montana Renewable’s plant in Great Falls, Montana.
In our latest Short-term Energy Outlook, we forecast that U.S. production of “other biofuels” will increase by about 50% in 2024 and almost double from 2024 to 2025. We do not publish a forecast for each fuel that makes up the category.
The primary driver for our forecasted increase in Other Biofuels production—from 19,000 b/d in 2023 to 51,000 b/d in 2025—is increasing U.S. SAF production capacity. Because we forecast renewable diesel production to continue increasing, we also expect production of renewable diesel by-products to increase through 2025 and explain some of the growth in our Other Biofuels production forecast.
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