EIA adds new forecasts of renewable diesel and other biofuels
In the EIA’s February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), they introduced new forecasts of U.S. production, consumption, and the net of imports less exports of biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other biofuels in the U.S. This new breakout provides a more detailed forecast for U.S. renewable diesel production. In previous STEO releases, the EIA forecast biomass-based diesel consumption, which combined all production and imports of biodiesel consumed in the U.S. with imported volumes of renewable diesel, not including domestically produced renewable diesel. Differentiating biodiesel from renewable diesel, provides a more precise accounting of biomass-based diesel.
Renewable diesel is a fuel made from fats and oils, such as soybean oil or canola oil, and is processed to be chemically the same as petroleum diesel. Renewable diesel can either replace conventional diesel completely or be mixed with any concentration of petroleum diesel. Like biodiesel, renewable diesel is used to comply with the renewable volume obligations for biomass-based diesel in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) administered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The two fuels also supply 95% or more of the RFS requirement for non-cellulosic advanced biofuels. The EPA’s proposed rule for 2022 calls for higher production in both of these categories. In addition, state-level programs, including California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Oregon’s Clean Fuels Program, have encouraged several petroleum refineries to convert to renewable diesel. As a result of these conversions and new construction of renewable diesel refineries, the EIA expects U.S. production capacity of renewable diesel to nearly triple by the end of 2023 from the current production capacity of 77,000 bpd.
Based on renewable diesel plant construction and the EPA’s proposed rule for the 2022 RFS, the EIA forecasts that renewable diesel production will increase significantly in 2022 and 2023.
The EIA also assumes a significant ramp-up in the U.S. production capacity of renewable diesel will add upward pressure to already high feedstock oil prices, which limits actual production growth in their forecast.
The February STEO also includes the EIA’s forecast that U.S. production of other biofuels (a much smaller market than biodiesel and renewable diesel) will increase in 2022 and 2023 due to increased production of sustainable aviation fuel.
A summary of the variable changes is available on the STEO variable change page. The new variables of renewable diesel and other biofuels match those published in the EIA’s Monthly Energy Review, based on survey data from their revised Form EIA-819, Monthly Report of Biofuels, Fuels from Non-Biogenic Wastes, Fuel Oxygenates, Isooctane, and Isooctene.
Principal contributor: Jimmy Troderman, Sean Hill
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