BP Technology Outlook 2018: Using Technology to improve production & processing of energy
BP published the second edition of the BP Technology Outlook. The report explores five areas where BP believes technology can play a game-changing role: Energy efficiency; digital; renewable power; energy storage; and decarbonized gas.
How can technology improve the production and processing of energy?
In order to meet demand, the energy industry uses technology to find, produce and convert primary energy resources including oil, natural gas, coal, uranium for nuclear power, biomass, solar and wind.
From the earliest oil wells to the latest wind turbines, technology developments have driven advances in the way that energy is discovered and produced – and many more developments are anticipated in the decades ahead.
Abundant energy resources
Around 55 trillion barrels of oil and gas (measured in trillions of barrels of oil equivalent or Tboe) have been discovered around the world. Of these, we estimate that around one-tenth, or 4.9 Tboe, could be recovered using today’s technology. By applying evolving technology through to 2050, these recoverable volumes could be increased by more than one-third to around 7.3 Tboe. This volume is more than enough to meet the world’s projected demand to 2050 – estimated at 1.8 to 2.5 Tboe. However, exploration and technology development remains important in this sector to provide resource options that are more economical or have lower environmental footprints than some of the discovered resources. Oil and gas production from a reservoir declines naturally over its lifetime and our analysis supports the International Energy Agency’s estimate that investment of around $600 billion per year industry-wide could still be needed to produce sufficient oil and gas to satisfy demand – a figure which allows for impacts to oil and gas production from announced policies and pledges toward achieving the Paris Agreement.
Along with renewable energy, nuclear power and coal, which is still widely used although projected to plateau, there is no shortage of options to meet the world’s needs, despite the potential for the world’s economy to more than double by 2050, with the population projected to rise from around 7.5 to around 9.8 billion.
Technically recoverable oil and gas resources (2016 and 2050)
The Middle East currently holds the largest oil resources, whereas the largest gas resources are in Russia and other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Technology advances to 2050 could increase recoverable oil reserves by around 50%, compared to around 25% for gas.
Improving access to oil and gas
Areas in which technologies are most effective in increasing access to oil and gas reserves include seismic exploration, enhanced recovery and wells. Seismic analysis is already benefitting from the use of supercomputers to analyze results quickly and provide highly detailed pictures of oil and gas reservoirs. We anticipate further advances in seismic imaging and the processing and interpretation of the vast volumes of data acquired. One example is the use of ‘full waveform inversion’, in which complex algorithms enable accurate predictions of reservoir behavior. The analysis indicates the largest impact will be onshore where acquiring seismic data can be difficult, with improved imaging enabling explorers to optimize well locations.
Improved and enhanced oil recovery (IOR/ EOR) technologies continue to develop, with new techniques such as modified salinity water and use of nanoparticles supplementing more established methods.
Our estimates suggest that IOR/EOR could deliver around 500 billion additional barrels of oil, or a 10% aggregate increase in total remaining recoverable resources, by 2050. Well technology development offers potential volume increases from stimulation, completions and intervention, with the greatest benefit for those, mostly unconventional, resources developed using large numbers of wells.
Lowering production costs of oil and gas
We estimate that, by 2050, technology has the potential to reduce average lifecycle costs by around 30% per barrel of oil equivalent across all oil and gas resource classes.
The types of resources with the greatest scope for cost reduction are the most capital intensive, such as deep and ultra-deep water, and those requiring large numbers of wells – such as unconventional resources including tight and shale oil.
Deepwater resources can benefit from improved rig and platform design as well as subsea and flow line development. At onshore sites, such as shale fields with large numbers of well pads, a standardized, repetitive manufacturing-style approach could reduce costs. Optimising production operations and field development could also lead to cost savings.
Digital production
Digitization is projected to underpin 25% of the increased volumes and one-third of the cost reductions associated with technology improvements, with the greatest impacts potentially coming from artificial intelligence.
SOURCE: BP Technology Outlook 2018
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