EIA forecasts increasing global production through 2019
EIA estimates that the implied global stock change (the difference between total world consumption and total world production) averaged 0.4 MMbpd in 2017, marking the first year of global inventory draws since 2013. EIA expects global inventories to increase by about 0.2 MMbpd in 2018 and by about 0.3 MMbpd in 2019.
Crude oil production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) averaged 32.5 MMbpd in 2017, a decrease of 0.2 MMbpd from 2016. The decline was mainly a result of the November 2016 OPEC production agreement that aimed to limit OPEC crude oil output to 32.5 MMbpd. OPEC and non-OPEC participants agreed on November 30, 2017, to extend the production cuts through the end of 2018 in an effort to reduce global oil inventories. EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to increase by 0.2 MMbpd in 2018 and by an additional 0.3 MMbpd in 2019 as it slowly returns to pre-agreement levels.
Crude oil production from the United States is expected to increase more than in any other country. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 10.3 MMbpd in 2018, marking the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 MMbpd set in 1970. U.S. crude oil production is expected to continue increasing in 2019 to an average of 10.8 MMbpd.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2018
Principal contributor: Matt French
Comments