Oil flat, erases gains as US crude draw shy of API report
NEW YORK (Reuters) — Oil prices were steady in see-saw trade on Wednesday, hitting their highest since mid-2015 and then retreating after US government data showed that the latest weekly draw in domestic crude stocks was not as big as an industry trade group had reported.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US crude stocks decreased by 2.4 MMbbl during the week of Oct. 27. That exceeded the 1.8 MMbbl draw forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll but fell well short of the 5.1 MMbbl decline reported late on Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API).
"Oil prices fell since the release of the (EIA) report," said Carsten Fritsch, oil analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, Germany, noting that the crude draw was "significantly less than the API numbers."
Brent futures were down 16 cents, or 0.3%, at $60.78 a barrel by 11:33 a.m. EDT (1533 GMT), while US West Texas Intermediate crude was down 3 cents, or 0.1% at $54.35.
Before EIA reported the inventory data, Brent was trading at its highest since July 2015 on data showing OPEC had significantly improved compliance with its pledged supply cuts and Russia was widely expected to keep to the deal.
Brent's session high was $61.70, its highest since July 2015, and WTI rose as high as $55.22, putting it within a couple cents of its highest since July 2015.
Both Brent and US crude notched strong monthly gains in October.
"The bulls have it and momentum is strong," Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said.
"We know how oil can easily run ahead of what is fundamentally justified and we've seen that in both directions in the last couple of years," he said. "We really need to see demand growth pick up even more strongly than what is currently expected for the bullish outlook for to be maintained."
This year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers have cut 1.8 MMbpd in oil production to boost prices.
OPEC's October output fell by 80,000 bpd to 32.78 MMbpd. Adherence to its pledged supply curbs rose to 92% from September's 86%.
Analysts and traders expect Russia to stick to its agreement to curb oil output by 300,000 bpd from 11.247 MMbpd reached in October 2016.
Saudi Arabia and Russia are considering extending the agreement. But analysts warned that the glut could return when the agreement ends, especially if US output continues to rise in the meantime.
"We could rapidly ... go from a predicted deficit of around 260,000 bbl to a surplus of close to 1.5 MMbbl. Prices would undoubtedly collapse," said Matt Stanley, a fuel broker at Freight Investor Services.
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by David Gregorio
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