Iran's July oil exports to fall, but 70% higher than year ago
(Reuters) Iran's oil exports in July are set to fall from June levels as the country battles Saudi Arabia and Iraq for market share, but are about 70% higher than a year ago, according to a source with knowledge of the country's crude lifting plans.
Exports will be about 2.14 MMbpd in July, down from about 2.31 MMbpd in June, the highest since January 2012, the source said. The decline is mostly attributable to a fall in condensate exports as South Korea cuts purchases of the ultra-light oil and reduced crude liftings from European customers.
Iran's oil exports have nearly doubled since December, the last month before sanctions targeting its disputed nuclear program were lifted, but it is facing ever tougher competition from its rival Saudi Arabia and neighbor Iraq.
This year, "we are really seeing the triumvirate turning the screws, especially with the return of Iranian barrels after the lifting of sanctions," Matt Smith, a director of Commodity Research at ClipperData, said on his daily blog.
"Exports for the three nations are averaging more than 2.3 MMbpd higher through May year-to-date compared to the same period last year," he said.
Iran has been regaining market share at a faster pace than analysts had projected since sanctions were lifted in January and exports will be above 2 MMbpd for a fourth month in July.
Exports to Europe in July are set to fall to about 430 Mbpd from about 580 Mbpd this month, the source said.
Iran's loadings to Asia in July are about the same as this month at 1.63 MMbpd, according to the source. Loadings peaked this year in April at 1.71 MMbpd.
Loadings for China, Iran's biggest customer, will be slightly over 654 Mbpd in July, up nearly 50 Mbpd from June. India will pick up about 480 Mbpd, the highest since March. South Korean loadings will be about half of those this month at 190 Mbpd. Japan is set to load about 235 Mbpd.
Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey are all loading Iranian oil, according to the source. Poland is absent this month, after making its the first purchase since last August in June.
Reporting by Aaron Shelldrick and Osamu Tsukimori; Editing by Christian Schmollinger
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