2016 BP Statistical Review shows world shifting to lower-carbon fuels
The 65th edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, launched late last week, sets out energy data for 2015, revealing a year in which significant long-term trends in both the global demand and supply of energy came to the fore with global energy consumption slowing further and the mix of energy sources shifting towards lower-carbon fuels.
The Review shows that in 2015 global demand for primary energy grew by only 1%, significantly slower than the 10-year average. This reflected continued weakness in the global economy and lower growth in Chinese energy consumption as the country shifts from an industrial to a service-driven economy.
On the supply side, technological advances have increased the range and availability of different fuels. The US shale revolution has unlocked huge swathes of oil and gas resources, and rapid technology gains have supported strong growth in renewable energy. Natural gas and oil also recorded solid growth in 2015, while global demand for coal saw its largest fall on record.
Prices for all fossil fuel energy fell last year, prompting adjustments in the energy markets; boosting demand in some markets – most notably oil which gained market share for the first time since 1999 – and curtailing supply and shifting the fuel mix in others.
Sluggish demand growth together with the shift in the energy mix away from coal meant that the growth incarbon emissions from energy consumption stalled in 2015. This encouraging development represented the slowest growth in emissions in nearly a quarter of a centry (aside from immediately following the financial crisis).
Review highlights
Refining and trade
- Global crude runs rose by 1.8 MMbpd (+2.3%) in 2015 – more than triple the 10-year average growth despite declines in South and Central America, Africa and Russia.
- Strong refining margins lifted crude runs by 1 MMbpd in the OECD, with growth in Europe (+740 Mbpd) the highest since 1986.
- Global refining capacity grew by only 450 Mbpd, the smallest increase in 23 years. Delayed expansion in China, combined with closures in Taiwan and Australia, resulted in a fall in Asian capacity for the first time since 1988.
- Global refinery utilization rose by 1 percentage point to 82.1%, the fastest increase in 5 years.
- Global trade of crude oil and refined products in 2015 expanded by 3 MMbpd (+5.2%), the largest increase since 1993.
- Crude oil trade was lifted by growing exports from the Middle East (+550 Mbpd), while Europe and China accounted for the largest increases in imports (+770 Mbpd and +530 Mbpd respectively).
- Growth in refined products exports was again led by the US (+470 Mbpd); the country’s net oil imports fell to 4.8 MMbpd, the lowest since 1985.
Natural gas: Consumption and production
- World natural gas consumption grew by 1.7%, a significant acceleration from the very weak growth (+0.6%) seen in 2014 but still below the 10-year average of 2.3%. Growth was below average outside the OECD (+1.9%, accounting for 53.5% of global consumption) but above average in the OECD countries (+1.5%).
- Among emerging economies, Iran (+6.2%) and China (+4.7%) recorded the largest increases in consumption, even though growth in China was weak compared with its 10-year average growth of 15.1%. Russia (-5%) recorded the largest incremental decline, followed by Ukraine (-21.8%).
- Among OECD countries, the US (+3%) accounted for the largest growth increment, while EU consumption (+4.6%) rebounded after a large decline in 2014.
- Globally natural gas accounted for 23.8% of primary energy consumption.
- Global natural gas production grew by 2.2%, more rapidly than consumption but below its 10-year average of 2.4%. Growth was above average in North America, Africa, and Asia Pacific. The US (+5.4%) recorded the largest growth increment, with significant increases also in Iran (+5.7%) and Norway (+7.7%). EU production fell sharply (-8%), with the Netherlands (-22.8%) recording the world’s largest decline. Large volumetric declines were also seen in Russia (-1.5%) and Yemen (-71.5%).
Trade
- Global natural gas trade rebounded in 2015, rising 3.3%.
- Pipeline shipments increased by 4%, driven by growth in net pipeline exports from Russia (+7.7%) and Norway (+7%). The largest volume increases in net pipeline imports were in Mexico (+44.9%) and France (+28.8%).
- Global LNG trade increased by 1.8%. Export growth was led by Australia (+25.3%) and Papua New Guinea (+104.8%), offsetting declines in shipments from Yemen (-77.2%). Higher net LNG imports for Europe(+15.9%) and rising Middle Eastern imports (+93.8%) were party offset by declines in net imports in South Korea (-10.4%) and Japan (-4%).
- International natural gas trade accounted for 30.1% of global consumption; pipeline share of global gas trade rose to 67.5%.
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