Majority of energy execs see crude exceeding $120/bbl in 2011 - survey
Energy executives expect continued volatility in the price oil for the remainder of the year, with 64% predicting crude prices to exceed $120/bbl in 2011, according to a new survey from KPMG.
The executives also foresee shale oil and gas having a transformative effect on helping to meet the world's energy needs, according to the results of the 9th annual energy survey conducted by the KPMG Global Energy Institute.
In this year's KPMG energy survey, which in April polled 550 financial executives from global energy companies, 32% think 2011 US crude oil prices will peak between $121/bbl and $130/bbl. One-third of executives see even higher prices, with 17% of those predicting between $131/bbl and $140/bbl.
Nine percent see between $141/bbl and $150/bbl; and 6% expect crude prices to exceed $151/bbl before year end. Only 35% think current crude prices are near the high they expect for oil this year, predicting the peak will be between $111/bbl and $120/bbl.
"While we have seen some very recent declines due to selloffs, these variations reflect persistent instability, and our survey findings confirm that we may have not seen peak levels on crude. Energy leaders tell us continued volatility will be driven by underlying issues such as regulation, geopolitical concerns and supply disruptions, as well as escalating energy demand," said John Kunasek, national leader of the KPMG US energy practice.
"But the good news is that energy executives tell us they are significantly increasing investment in a range of alternative energy sources and see shale factoring strongly into meeting the world's future energy needs,” he added.
In fact, 35% of the executives surveyed said their company would increase R&D investment in alternative energy projects in 2011, up considerably from 15% in KPMG's 2010 survey.
Alternative Energy Sources
Shale gas/oil (44%) was most frequently cited by executives as the alternative energy source that will win the most significant investment, with nearly two-thirds (62%) expecting shale oil and/or gas to continue to have a transformative impact on meeting the world's energy needs.
Executives also cited solar (31%), wind (25%), clean coal technologies (17%), biodiesel (10%), and chemically-stored electricity, such as batteries and fuel cells (8%), as alternative energy sources that would see increased R&D investment.
"What is exciting about these findings is that it demonstrates the industry's intent to explore all options," said Kunasek. "Previously, the executives have pointed to wind and solar as the main investment choices, but this year we have seen a shift. Increased production of shale gas in North America could have profound implications on the global energy sector. Even batteries and fuel cells have entered the conversation."
Higher Capital Spending
In addition to investment in alternative energy, executives surveyed by KPMG say their companies will increase investment in their businesses, predicting capital spending to increase in 2011 compared to 2010.
In fact, 33% of executives expect capital spending to rise by more than 10% over last year's levels, while 17% project an increase between five and 10%. An additional 17% forecast an increase of up to 5%.
Sixty-nine percent anticipate operating costs will go up over the next 12 months as well.
A significant portion of the additional capital spending could be allocated to increasing human resources, as many of the executives (49%) expect their company's workforce to expand over the next 12 months – up two percentage points from KPMG's 2010 survey.
One-quarter expect the workforce to increase up to 5%; 13% see increases between five and 10%; and 11% think their company will expand the workforce by more than 10%.
"Executive expectations for capital spending and hiring are very positive indicators for the energy industry," said Regina Mayor, oil and gas sector leader for KPMG in the US. "After several years of lower investment, companies appear focused on transformation and innovation, despite the significant regulatory and economic risk factors they are confronting."
Offshore Exploration and Production
Interestingly, despite the amount of attention the measures received, 68% of executives surveyed by KPMG say the regulatory restrictions resulting from the Gulf of Mexico incident have had no impact on their companies' offshore exploration and production efforts.
However, 12% said their companies have increased emphasis on nontraditional explorations such as shale, and 10% have increased onshore drilling. Eight percent say they have shut down US rigs and moved to other geographies; and another 8% say regulatory restrictions will have little impact on long-term development of offshore reserves but have improved exacting drilling practices.
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