This year’s hurricane season still expected to be a doozy
Dr. Philip Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray study the meteorological tendencies of the Atlantic Ocean area. This means they have a wealth of data pertaining to hurricane season and recently came out with an update to their 2010 forecast.
The update states that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season.
“We estimate that 2010 will have about 10 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 18 named storms (average is 9.6), 90 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 major hurricane days (average is 5.0),” said Dr. Gray in a report released on Colorado State’s website. “The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity is estimated to be well above its long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity in 2010 to be approximately 195% of the long-term average season. We have maintained our seasonal forecast from early June.”
The forecasters also believe that a moderate La Niña will be present over the next several months, which should reduce levels of vertical wind shear. Other factors contributing to a forecasted active hurricane season include warm sea surface temperatures in the tropics and North Atlantic; “anomalously” low sea level pressures across the tropical Atlantic in June and July; and the fact the forecasters believe the Earth is in the midst of a multi-decade era of major hurricane activity.
You can read the full report by clicking here:
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2010/aug2010/aug2010.pdf
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